Wednesday, September 26, 2012

November Election Issues:  Polls.

Things have certainly launched off into silly land.  The worse the economy does, the worse it is for Romney and the better it is for Obama.  The doodoo hits the fan in the Middle East, and again, Obama's poll numbers go up and Romney's go down.  By this logic, Obama would need to increase (official) unemployment to 12%, add another $ trillion to the deficit and fund some terrorist groups to help his party win total control.

The fact is that polling organizations always take samples of different groups, and then do a weighted average of the answers based on historical correlations.  The trick is in the "weighted average", which amounts to a voodoo step in the middle of an otherwise scientific process.  With this, a malicious pollster can easily rig numbers to influence public opinion.  Since most of the polling outlets are hard left, well, expect the numbers to be of a sort that the leftist journalists imagine would help their candidate.  Things should change in the last few days before the election since, ahem, the historical correlations will be based on election days of past years, rather than non-election day histories.

Finally, for fun I will include a quote from somewhere else with a typical example of how leftist polling has worked for the last few decades:

"In 1980, Ronald Reagan beat Carter by nearly 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent.  In a Gallup Poll released days before the election on Oct. 27, it was Carter who led Reagan 45 percent to 42 percent."

I should probably do my own homework on this, but will leave it at that for now unless someone cares to challenge it.

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